Lessons from a Loser

contact@thirdway.com (Jim Kessler, Vice President for Policy) — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 10:14:00 -0600

I grew up in Philadelphia and also happen to be a lifelong Red Sox fan, so I know a little bit about losing. In Philadelphia, losing is handed down from generation to generation. I remember the day some 30 years ago when my father bestowed upon me four single World Series tickets from 1964 – games 1 and 2 and 6 and 7 (if necessary) for the Phillies. Tickets issued when they had a 6 ½ game lead with 12 to go. Tickets issued with Jim Bunning and Chris Short leading the rotation and Richie (“call me Dick”) Allen, Johnny Callison and Tony Taylor anchoring an offensive juggernaut. Tickets issued before a rookie second baseman named Joe Morgan blooped a game-winning single, before a steal of home stole another game, before they dropped 10 of 12. No, games 6 and 7 weren’t necessary and neither were games 1 and 2. The Cardinals won the pennant that year, defeating Jim Bouton’s New York Yankees.

But with losing comes optimism. I believed in the Phillies every year as well as my adopted Red Sox. I believed during the “you gotta believe” Tug McGraw years and the “Yes we can” Dave Cash years. I believed when Dave Henderson took Donnie Moore over the fence only to see Mookie Wilson ground one through the legs in 1986. And occasionally that belief is rewarded. The 1980 Phillies won the World Series in improbable fashion (I cried). The 2004 Red Sox came from 0-3 to sweep four from the Yanks and deliver a world championship (I matured to gloating). Good things do happen.

Maybe that is why I still believe we can someday pass major health care reform. But a new poll out by Democracy Corps (who normally do great, great work) is full of ominous warning signs. Signs I’ve heard before in sports (“it’s just a little stiffness in the elbow) and signs I’ve heard even more in politics (“mission accomplished”).

Nearly every poll response shows deep ambivalence among the public for major health care reform.

82% are satisfied with the quality of health care they receive – a great number unless you are pushing major reform.
91% say they currently have health insurance – again, a great number unless you are trying to convince people they have a health care crisis on their hands.
Only 24% say the health care system has so many problems it needs an overhaul.
By a 52-47% margin, Americans prefer incremental reforms to bold steps.
By a 58-36% margin, Americans believe the best way to lower cost is through private sector competition rather than government intervention.
The best news for reform is that the plan implemented by Governor’s Romney and Schwarzenegger are at least initially positive.

However, the message memo from Democracy Corps paints a very different picture of the political environment for reform. They call for Democrats to press their advantage and make major reform a central campaign pillar. “Country is ready for the universal health care debate,” they trumpet among other exhortations.

But this rosy scenario is the last thing health care reformers ought to hear. The reality is that progressives need to treat health care with the same care and trepidation as immigration reform. They must realize that the country is deeply ambivalent about reform and they must answer those ambivalences. They must quickly understand that as soon as the real health care debate begins – not the Youtube version – they will find a live hand grenade in their palms and the absence of a pin. That doesn’t mean they should avoid health care reform, it means they must march into the debate with eyes wide open. The alternative is 1994 all over again.

Stan Greenberg, Anna Greenberg and James Carville are among the smartest in the business. How could they have this interpretation of their own poll? I know – they must be Red Sox and Phillies fans.

(Author’s note: While I am a Red Sox fan, that is the only non-Philly team I support. So don’t give me the Celtics and Patriots line about winning a bunch of championships. I hate them.)

Third Way Dispatch: Lessons from a Loser

Lessons from a Loser