Third Way Dispatch

Democrats see themselves as the party of the middle-class. It’s a long-held, deeply cherished belief, but there’s one tiny little problem—the middle-class, especially the white middle-class—increasingly is voting for Republicans.

John Kerry lost the heart of the middle-class—voters with household incomes of between $30,000 and $75,000—by 6-points in 2004. He lost white middle-class voters by a whopping 22-points. And it wasn’t all about Kerry wind-surfing and ordering Swiss on his cheesesteak —down the ballot, white middle-class voters opted for Republican congressional candidates over Democrats by 19-points.

What’s the matter with the middle-class? Hot-button culture issues and national security no doubt draw away some voters, but they don’t tell the whole story.

We think the progressive economic message is falling flat with middle-class voters. In our new study, we lay out what our side says about the economy, versus what average voters think, and we found ‘five degrees of separation’ between progressives and average Americans.

We think that repairing these disconnects are the key to reconnecting progressives with the middle-class:

• We’re downers. Americans are optimistic; progressive messaging is pessimistic.

• We’re worriers. Americans are confident about our nation’s future; progressive messaging implies a country in decline.

• We’re ignoring their dreams. Americans are aspirational and want more opportunity; progressives mainly talk about economic security.

• We’re talking past them. Many signature progressive policy initiatives—like raising the minimum wage—don’t benefit the middle-class (in other words, middle-class voters aren’t voting against their economic interests, as some would argue, because progressives aren’t actually offering them much).

• We’re attacking the wrong targets. Progressives criticize the beneficiaries of conservative policies (the wealthy and big business) instead of conservative economic philosophy. The middle-class doesn’t see the wealthy or big business as the enemy.

Our new message memo, The Politics of Opportunity, lays out a new progressive economic message and policy framework that we think will better resonate with the middle-class: “A New Era of Middle-Class Opportunity.”

Conservatives are flopping around and gasping for air at the moment ($100 gas rebate anyone?). We have an historic opportunity to make progress with a group that has been leaving our side in droves. But we have to get both the words and music right if the middle-class is going to play our song.