Third Way Dispatch

Fighter pilots go through a special kind of training affectionately known as “panic in a can.” In the training, a simulated cockpit is filled with water and spun around, with the occupant trying to escape and come up for air.

One of the most famous fighter pilots to do the “panic in a can” is George W. Bush.

He didn’t get this training during in his lazy, hazy summer days with the Texas Air National Guard, however. He got it as President, when he landed on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in his flight suit to give a speech under the infamous Mission Accomplished banner.

Three years later, the President is still trying to escape and come up for air.

“Major combat operations in Iraq have ended,” the President declared back then. “In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.”

It was Bush’s ultimate tough talk moment. But like so many other times in the administration of George W. Bush, he talked tough, but he wasn’t smart.

Since that fateful photo op, 2,262 American men and women in uniform have been killed—more than 16 times as many as had been killed when the President spoke. More than 17,000 have been wounded. More than $250 billion has been spent in Iraq alone.

What a difference three years can make.

In fact, just what is the difference? Here’s a short then-and-now analysis of the President’s May 1, 2003 speech on the flight deck.

George Bush on weapons of mass destruction: “We’ve begun the search for hidden chemical and biological weapons and already know hundreds of sites that will be investigated.”

In September 2004, the final report of the Iraq Survey Group said it found no evidence of WMD stocks.

In the meantime, North Korea has announced it possesses nuclear weapons and Iran has announced it has enriched uranium.

On reconstruction: “We’re helping rebuild Iraq.”

But after spending $20 billion in US funds and $37 billion in other funds, Iraq has less water and electricity and is producing less oil than it did under Saddam Hussein.

On Iraq-al Qaida ties: “We’ve removed an ally of al-Qaeda and cut off a source of terrorist funding.”

But according to the 9/11 Commission, there was no link between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists, led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, have since established themselves in Iraq, however. One Congressional Research Service Report estimated there were 3,500 foreign fighters in Iraq, allied with anywhere from 12,000 to 40,000 indigenous fighters and another 150,000 sympathetic supporters.

“Our government has taken unprecedented measures to defend the homeland.”

Two words: “Hurricane Katrina”.

“The war on terror is not over; yet it is not endless. We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide.”

But global terrorist attacks and kidnappings crossed the 10,000 mark for the first time last year, with more than 14,000 deaths. And, of course, Osama bin Laden is still at large, almost 5 years after the attacks of 9/11.

“The advance of freedom is the surest strategy to undermine the appeal of terror in the world. Where freedom takes hold, hatred gives way to hope.”

But if anything, there are more converts to the al-Qaeda cause today than there were in 2003.

In a Rose Garden ceremony this morning, Bush thanked two of the chief architects of the war, Condoleezza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld, and admitted “there’s [sic] going to be more tough days ahead.”

True enough, but let’s hope there are some smarter choices ahead, too.