Third Way Dispatch

As the Senate prepares to take up the issue of immigration, everyone in this town is nervous.

Some conservatives — particularly the ones who whistle “Hail to the Chief” as they gaze into mirrors — are worried that their side will squander their recent gains with Hispanics. Since 1996, when Bill Clinton won the Hispanic vote by 50 points, Democrats have been losing ground by 50% per election cycle. Al Gore won by only 24 in 2000, and John Kerry nipped George Bush by only about a dozen. As the Hispanic vote has grown (from 4.1% of the electorate in 1996 to 8.4% in 2004), Hispanic household incomes have dramatically increased, and Democratic margins have simultaneously dwindled. (See our report Unrequited Love for more info).

So with the decennial congressional immigration bill on the floor, some conservative operatives – like Jack Abramoff’s buddy Grover Norquist – are very, very nervous about losing the ground they’ve gained with Hispanics.

But I’m nervous too. I am afraid that progressives will go overboard to try and please one constituency (Hispanics) at the expense of another constituency (moderates).

But they don’t have to. As we lay out in our new message memo Tough, Fair, and Practical on Immigration, progressives can support principled legislation (like McCain-Kennedy) and win over moderates. The memo lays out a four-step game plan that wins the battle of reasonableness and drives a wedge between conservatives and moderates, without driving a wedge between moderates and Hispanics.